There are actually three inter-related ecosystems

First: The Ecosystem for eBooks
Second: The Ecosystem for Books
Third: An emerging Ecosystem for Author Services

These are, in some ways, completely different Ecosystems. However, they are inter-dependent in subtle ways

The Ecosystem for eBooks is a threat to the Ecosystem for Books. If eBooks take off, instead of being stuck at their current artificially induced 30% market share state, then the Ecosystem for Books will shrink massively

The Ecosystem for Author Services will evolve based on how much money flows to eBooks and Indie Authors, and how much stays with the established Publishing Houses

The Ecosystem for Books doesn't just include Big Publishers and Mid Size Publishers, it also includes book stores, the ebook stores (who benefit a lot more from $10 ebooks and $20 paperbacks, than they do from indie authors running riot with $0.99 and $2.99 ebooks). It also encompasses Service Providers that provide services to these entities

Any discussion about the eBooks ecosystem must consider that
1) At some point there will be a stable state where eBooks will take up a certain percentage of the Books market, and the rest will remain paper books. The current 30% share for ebooks is an illusion, supported by massive manipulations by all the entities who would suffer if eBooks became 70% or 80% of the market
2) The Ecosystem for Author Services is divided between those who provides services to the established large players, and those who provide services to emerging independent authors. If eBooks take over 70% to 80% of the market, then the companies supporting large players might perish or suffer greatly



At this point, there is absolutely no one who can accurately predict WHEN big changes will happen. Nor can they predict where the markets will go

You can say, with a reasonable amount of confidence
1) There will be a gradual shift to eBooks with eBooks taking up 50% of the market, and then 70% of the market (by revenues, not unit sales)
2) The large established companies (including Publishers and eBook Stores and Book Stores) that do not adapt to the changing landscape will get wiped out. These companies are not set up to survive in a world of $0.99 and $2.99 and Free eBooks
3) There will be some new companies that emerge and become very large. Companies that are built from the ground up to support ebooks and independent authors have dual advantages - they are much more nimble and cost-efficient; they do not have to artificially suppress ebooks and lower priced ebooks
4) Things will become tougher for authors. With Publishers, if you're a very good author, most of the other aspects are taken care of. As an independent author, you have to take care of Everything
5) Things will become tougher for Everyone in all 3 Ecosystems. The Old Guard will take many many measures to kill off emerging authors and new emerging companies. The new emerging authors and emerging companies, as they are built for a world of cheap ebooks, will make the Old Guard companies suffer a lot
6) When there is a new stable state, there is a very real chance that instead of 5 Large Publishers, lots of small Publishers, and a few big book store companies, we are left with 2 or 3 monolithic companies with a frightening amount of control
7) The eBooks Ecosystem will expand into other areas, and suddenly related Markets like Textbooks and Scientific Journals will become vulnerable. Books (paper and electronic combined) is a $32 billion a year business (in the United States alone). There is an additional $68 billion a year of textbooks, medical journals, legal journals, and scientific papers. This additional $68 billion a year mega-business becomes super vulnerable if one or two companies take over the Books Business. So the game being played in eBooks is for $100 Billion a Year just in the US


We have Dinosaurs fighting with Mammals. At the same time we have Titanic Sized Companies fighting for Control of the Books Ecosystem
What can authors do? What should authors do?

Well, here are our recommendations
1) Don't ally yourself completely with one side. At this point we really don't know who will win. So it's a bit dangerous to sign 10 year exclusivity deals, or ally yourself completely with one side
2) Change is the only Constant. Stay nimble. Save up as much money as you can
3) Save up as much money as you can. If things become tougher then you will need it. If eBooks and Independent Authors start winning and taking over the market, you can utilize your savings to grow earnings faster
4) Don't trust anyone. The only time authors and companies die fast, is when they trust someone too much. In most other cases, change is gradual and gives you time to adapt. However, if you put your fate completely in the hands of one entity, it can kill you off any time it wants. And history shows us, it usually will kill you off as soon as it no longer needs you
5) Read up a bit and understand all three ecosystems -
The Current Books Ecosystem which is controlled by Large Publishers and Distributors and Large EBook Stores and Large Book Stores
The emerging eBooks Ecosystem which might very well become a free for all
The Services for Authors Ecosystem, which is critical to understand. You will be buying all the services you require, as an author, from this Ecosystem

We're basically at an artificial point - where the Entities that control the Books Ecosystem, are pushing against the emergence of the eBooks Ecosystem. They fear that the eBooks Ecosystem will overtake and eventually wreck the Books Ecosystem

If you are an author, the signs would indicate that the eBooks Ecosystem will take over in the long run. However, it is not clear how many years it would be. So you should be prepared for the new emerging Ecosystem where you will have to fend for yourself in the midst of great opportunities.
At the same time you have to survive and thrive in the current ecosystem, which is more structured and stable. At the same time, it is tightly controlled and provides far fewer opportunities for independent authors